Parting Thoughts

As I departed Afghanistan for what I intend to be the last time, I felt a little frustrated that I had left my job undone, my mission unaccomplished.  Though I had worked hard and traveled extensively to support units across southern Afghanistan with training and maintain the equipment they used, I was departing with nearly every unit going through a relief in place and most of the equipment needing software updates installed.  Though I don't feel my work was all for naught, the constant rotation of personnel and transitions in technological war-fighting methods, has left me feeling like I just ran in place for a year.

  

Afghanistan is America's longest war, and the marathon has been run like a relay by the soldiers fighting on the ground, each one-year deployment like a lap around the track handing the baton off to the next unit at the end of their rotation, sometimes knowing they will be taking the baton right back when they come round the last turn of their twelve-month rotation, sometimes looking back and wondering what they really accomplished other than another lap, and often wondering what the next unit will accomplish, or carry forward, in their absence.  As soldiers continue to return again and again, their sprinter mentality slowly shifts to a long distance mentality; and from a competitor looking for the prize, to a participant just looking for the finish; to hand off and move on.

On one of my final trips to visit with units before I finished my last lap, I spoke to one soldier who is on his sixth deployment in ten years.  He thought his fifth rotation was his last, and the Army had agreed, assigning him to train the next generation of young sprinters.  He was suppose to have a three year assignment at the school house, what has been termed a 'stability' assignment, where he could go home every night for three years and get to know his family that has grown up without him at home for five of the last ten years. 

He and his family moved to the new post and were almost settled in when he was reassigned, his 'stability' cut short, and his family uprooted once again to move to a new post, where they would be left alone in a new community, while he deployed again for another year.  Exhausted, but back in the starting blocks, he is determined that this will be his last lap and he will submit his retirement papers before the deployment ends.  He, like many others I spoke to, are getting out of the military, some before they reach their retirement, some before their marriage is ruined, and some losing both.

Meanwhile, our competitor has ran this race as a marathon from the start.  Like the tortoise he started this race setting his own pace, running only when he felt it was necessary to survive. As the coalition runs its laps he watches each runner charge ahead and meets them again at the turn.  He nips at their heels as they reach the hand off and throws hurdles in front of the next runner.  He knows he doesn't have to win.  He just has to stay on the track, keep the spectating populace from rooting against him, and scramble to claim a place on the winners podium when we leave.

As we approach the end of the race everyone is watching the finish line come into focus on the horizon.  The western media has lost interest in the race and only provides updates if a runner stumbles and how it might affect the outcome, or to provide updates on the latest developments of where each partner country will draw their finish line.  2014 is only a few laps away and the pack is breaking apart.  Although the coalition and Afghan government have run most of the race together it is clear the Afghan government will be the one fighting for a place on the podium.  The Taliban is another runner with an eye on the podium, and then there are the many tribal groups and warlords that may want to claim a spot on the podium as well.

2014 also marks the finish of another race: the race to see who will lead the government after Karzai.  The next presidential election comes right as coalition forces begin their final draw down.  Corruption tainted the second election that Karzai won, but western countries backed his victory and the populace didn't try to refute it.  Karzai cannot run for office again unless he amends the constitution, which would cripple the document setting a precedent for future leaders to modify the document to fit the whims and fancy.

However, Karzai is also making moves to weaken the Election commision by removing two foreign commissioners from the board of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), which suggests he wants to ensure the next elections turn out in his parties favor.  The fact that the coalition withdraw and the elections will occur in tandem, and the fact that the Karzai government is limiting foreign oversight, puts the elections more in the hands of the current government, which could rise to the occasion and ensure fair and open elections are held, or use it to their advantage to maintain power.

Arguments over the date of elections, 5 April 2014, also have an interesting geo-polictical spin, like a new kind of environmental gerrymandering.  The majority of the population is Pashtun, as is Karzai and his government.  They hail from the south and eastern areas of the country where winter weather has less of an effect on getting to the polls.  However the northern region and mountains are made up of minority ethnic groups who could be weathered in during election season.

The Taliban also remains a wildcard in the elections and could attempt to gain further influence through politics, legitimately or through coercion and ballot stuffing.  They are already building shadow governance in the provinces as coalition forces withdraw, establishing their own structures of provincial and district leadership, and establishing their own Sharia judicial system.

However, the security bubble in Kabul - provided by Afghan National Security Forces and the coalition - has kept the locals optimistic.  According to Dawn News, "Faheem Gul Wardak, a small-business owner and social activist in Kabul, argued that the focus on the number of Taliban attacks — mostly involving improvised explosive devices in roadside attacks — obscured a more complex reality of the insurgency. 'Yes, the Taliban are active in the countryside everywhere, but it’s not very organized and there’s little coordination across villages and districts. That kind of activity is hard to eliminate but neither is it consolidated enough to overrun the country,' Wardak said. 'Let’s say after 2014, the Taliban do try and overrun the country. They’d have to mass somewhere and then they’d be vulnerable from the skies, even if Western ground troops depart. There’s just too much firepower now for the Taliban to win,' Wardak argued."
 

Wardak's comments highlight a concern I addressed in a previous blog.  As coalition forces withdraw, pulling out the majority of our air power that Wardak is counting on, we are also planning to reduce the financial support to the Afghan government, which is paying for the Afghan security forces.  Without western funding, the Afghan government will have to find ways to pay for it on their own, or reduce the number of local security forces across the country.  This could lead to unemployed, but well trained, fighters, ripe for recruitment into the local insurgency or Taliban shadow government and security structure.

In the same article, Dawn News also interviewed Shahid Safi, a Kabul-based businessman, who said, “The insurgency has grown stronger, but the government forces are giving the Taliban a tough fight. I don’t believe the Taliban will succeed in taking over again,” The businessman continued, “It’s not the Nineties, the situation has changed. Many people have invested their money and have large businesses in the country. They will definitely stand with the government for peace and stability.”

Safi's sentiment highlights another sentiment and factor in Afghans future: capitalism.  One of the analysts I met on my first deployment pointed this out as well.  He said, "We may have come with political goals of establishing democracy, but more importantly, we have given them a taste of capitalism, and that is something they will fight for."  Not only do you have political leaders struggling to maintain power, but you now have business leaders who want to maintain stability to protect their economic interests.  Free and fair trade may prove to be a greater motivator than the ideals of democracy in Afghanistan's pursuit of stable governance.

I feel we are now in the hurry up and wait phase of the conflict.  The stage is set and all parties are aware of the 2014 timeline.  Western forces are tired and looking for ways to hasten the withdrawal timeline.  Afghan political leadership will be interested in asserting their power prior to elections, which means they too may look for ways to speed the coalitions departure.

The people of Afghanistan do not seem interested in a Taliban resurgence, but the government may not be able to prevent it on their own.  If the Taliban try to enter the fray politically, they would most likely lose a fair fight, so they will most likely try to do it by force just like they did in the 90's.

Will the population and government prevail?  Will western nations continue to support the government and their security forces if corruption continues at its current rampant scale, or if the elections turn out in the favor of an unsavory party?  Will the new government want our help, or will they ask us to leave by changing the Status of Forces Agreement, like Iraq in 2010? These and many other questions are on my mind and likely on the people and politicians of the nation.  The answers lie somewhere in an uncertain future, which we all must patiently await.